857
FXUS65 KVEF 070442
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
942 PM PDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES ALONG THE I-15 AND I-40 CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON.
* DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LABOR DAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
OUR BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS SET UP ALONG THE I-15 AND
I-40 CORRIDORS. RAIN RATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 0.10" PER
HOUR OR LESS, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM A
TRACE TO 0.33" AS OF 1230PM. HAVE SEEN ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES SO FAR, WITH BEST ODDS OF ADDITIONAL STRIKES ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP BAND. BARRING ANY MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ANTICIPATING RAINFALL REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE VALUES ON THE
HIGHER END LIKELY BEING "MIDNIGHT HIGHS".
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD TOMORROW, WE LOSE THE
FORCING AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE THAT HELPED PRODUCE THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TODAY. WE'LL STILL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND,
BUT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE RETROGRADING BACK INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS WEEK, PROMOTING A WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY THAT TIME, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
HIGHS 3-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH VALUES ECLIPSING THE CENTURY
MARK OVER MOST OF THE MOJAVE DESERT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS
MODEST MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, ALLOWING LOW (LESS THAN 30%)
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW NEXT
WEEKEND SHOULD SCOUR MOISTURE OUT AND BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
SLIGHTLY.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TONIGHT WILL VARY BETWEEN 150-190
TRUE, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 8KT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THEREAFTER, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS,
SHIFTING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY MID-MORNING, THEN VEERING TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-15 WILL CONTINUE DISSIPATING TONIGHT,
WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT,
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL
PATTERNS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20-25KT ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
SIMILAR WESTERLY GUSTS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT/KDAG
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...WOODS
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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