064
FXUS65 KVEF 230442
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
942 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK ONWARD, WITH A RETURN
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATE WEEK.
* POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
TODAY'S COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM,
INCREASED ASCENT AND LINGERING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN, INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NYE COUNTY AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES,
THOUGH FLOODING AND STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOWER (10-20%) CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE IN CLARK COUNTY WHERE
TOPOGRAPHY WILL AID IN ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT AROUND 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
A FITTING START TO THE ASTRONOMICAL FALL SEASON!
MIDWEEK ONWARD, INCREASING THICKNESSES IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S ACROSS
DESERT VALLEYS (THE NORMAL HIGH IN LAS VEGAS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS
91 DEGREES). FORTUNATELY, ONLY MINOR (AND LOCALIZED MODERATE)
HEATRISK WILL RESULT. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE MOST OF THE REGION WILL
STAY DRY, ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
WAVE, LINGERING OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST BEFORE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-15, AS WELL AS A RETURN OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BOTH SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK,
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER CONVECTION WILL LINGER
OVER MOHAVE COUNTY BEYOND THURSDAY.
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES
ARE INDICATING A POTENTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DEEPEN ALONG
THE WEST COAST BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING INLAND. HOWEVER, DETAILS
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME WITH DISCREPANCY AMONG
GUIDANCE REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. IF
THIS PATTERN SHIFT MATERIALIZES, ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SO, STAY TUNED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO TURN MORE VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY THE LATE MORNING. THESE WINDS TO REDUCES
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID AFTERNOON AND BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MID WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
MODERATE FOR KIFP IN THE MID MORNING AND KBIH BY THE LATE MORNING,
BUT ONLY LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTIONS LOOK TO BE
MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS AND NOT BY LARGER SCALE WEATHER
PATTERNS, MEANING THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IN DIRECTIONS ESPECIALLY WITH AREAS SEEING VERY LIGHT
WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PHILLIPSON
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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