168
FXUS65 KVEF 232009
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
109 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY MOHAVE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
* A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THE COOLDOWN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WAS SHORT-LIVED, WITH A
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO TOP OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, HEATRISK WILL
REMAIN MINOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK, MAINLY THROUGH DEATH VALLEY AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AN EXCEPTION
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS AREA REMAIN
AROUND 1 INCH, AND WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK, DIURNAL
HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST WILL DAMPEN AND
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THIS FEATURE ISN'T EXCEPTIONALLY
POTENT, ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15. MORE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THAN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY (DOWN TO
AROUND 0.85 INCH), HOWEVER, INCREASED INSTABILITY, A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHEAR, AND DCAPE STILL AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG WILL YIELD
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING/WEAKENING WAVE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY DAYS REGION-WIDE, AND FOCUS
WILL TURN TO A DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSES AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR, HOWEVER,
DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING, DEPTH, AND TRAJECTORY RESULT IN HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACTS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY,
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES INLAND, FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL
CARRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING ASCENT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND LOCATION, AS WELL AS WHETHER ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE ROUTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL
PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING UNDER 8KT.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER ANTICIPATED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-10KT AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY
DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY OF KIFP, WHERE DOWN-VALLEY
NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 10-15KT WILL GUST TO 20-25KT BEFORE
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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