372
FXUS65 KVEF 232140
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, PARTICULARLY MOHAVE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ON THURSDAY.
* A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
THE COOLDOWN WE EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY WAS SHORT-LIVED, WITH A
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO TOP OUT PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
THIS WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE REGION, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DESPITE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, HEATRISK WILL
REMAIN MINOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
MODERATE HEATRISK, MAINLY THROUGH DEATH VALLEY AND THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AN EXCEPTION
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-40. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THIS AREA REMAIN
AROUND 1 INCH, AND WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY WEAK, DIURNAL
HEATING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEND TO A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST CONCERNS. TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST WILL DAMPEN AND
TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THIS FEATURE ISN'T EXCEPTIONALLY
POTENT, ASSOCIATED ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15. MORE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THAN TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR FAR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DO DECREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY (DOWN TO
AROUND 0.85 INCH), HOWEVER, INCREASED INSTABILITY, A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN SHEAR, AND DCAPE STILL AROUND 1200-1500 J/KG WILL YIELD
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING/WEAKENING WAVE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE DRY DAYS REGION-WIDE, AND FOCUS
WILL TURN TO A DEEPENING TROUGH PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSES AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL OCCUR, HOWEVER,
DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING, DEPTH, AND TRAJECTORY RESULT IN HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACTS SEVERAL DAYS OUT. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY,
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LOOK TO RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND AS THE TROUGH TRANSLATES INLAND, FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL
CARRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING ASCENT
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND LOCATION, AS WELL AS WHETHER ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL BE ROUTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME
VARIABILITY, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 8KT OR LESS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL,
AND CURRENTLY, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT
WOULD BE AN OUTFLOW-INDUCED WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WHICH INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
OCCURRING IS VERY LOW. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS
WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 12KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR LESS AND FOLLOW
TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH NO
IMPACTS EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS AT AREA TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION. HOWEVER, GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS (KIFP AND KEED) WILL BE
POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL WITH FEW-SCT
CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 12KFT, POSSIBLY LOWER IN THE VICINITY OF
CONVECTION
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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