818
FXUS65 KVEF 240701
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1158 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND THURSDAY 19Z-06Z,
PARTICULARLY MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD FROM SYSTEMS
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR DESERT VALLEYS...COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW DAY PERIOD
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
RAIN TO THE REGION. (MORE DETAILS BELOW ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
TROUGH). HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR WHERE
BETTER CHANCES EXIST FOR RAIN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY OCTOBER.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
LOWER GREAT BASIN THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MOHAVE
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK
TROUGHING SITS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST, PLACING ARIZONA AND THE FOUR
CORNERS IN A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS WAVES RIDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH IT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA, WORKING TO
ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDING
LIFT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOISTURE
IS ONLY MARGINAL WITH PW AT OR UNDER 1.00 INCH, ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PLUS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM LOCAL TERRAIN
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE ARE ONLY
MARGINAL AS WELL, MAINLY UNDER 750 J/KG, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DCAPE IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AROUND 1500 J/KG
LENDING TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING WAVE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE DRY DAYS REGION-WIDE, THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANE
ODALYS AND POLO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY. DESPITE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY, ECMWF EFI STILL SHOWS
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ONLY AROUND 50% FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OUTSIDE
OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE IN THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE, EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS, AND TIMING OF
FEATURES; WHICH OVERALL AFFECTS WHERE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS WILL BE. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR COULD BE IMPACTED BY CLOUDS, RAIN,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO WHAT EXTENT.
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ANY
PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING COULD BE; HOWEVER THIS IS A SET UP
TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND AS THE
TROUGH TRANSLATES INLAND, FALLING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A COOLING
TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
WESTERLY WINDS TO LAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
EASTERLY. THESE WINDS WILL REDUCE SLIGHTLY INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
BECOME MORE VARIABLE. INFREQUENT BREEZES FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FROM DISTANT
STORM ACTIVITY. WINDS CONTINUE TO STAY LIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
TURN WESTERLY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS PEAK PREVAILING
WINDS STAY UNDER 10 KTS. WIND DIRECTIONS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
INFLUENCED BY LOCAL EFFECTS AND NOT BY LARGER SCALE WEATHER
PATTERNS, MEANING THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF
VARIABILITY IN DIRECTIONS PARTICULARLY WITH AREAS SEEING VERY LIGHT
WINDS. KEED AND KIFP WILL SEE SOME STORM SPOTTY STORM ACTIVITY INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT, LEADING TO SOME
POTENTIAL FOR INFREQUENT, ERRATIC GUSTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MOORE
AVIATION...MURDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page