596
FXUS65 KVEF 241142
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
442 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL.
* ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY IN MOHAVE
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT. LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SLOWLY INCREASE EACH DAY SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW-100S AND LOWS IN THE 70S TO LOW-80S
FOR DESERT VALLEYS... COOLER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FEW DAY PERIOD
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
RAIN TO THE REGION. (MORE DETAILS BELOW ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS
TROUGH). HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 80S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR WHERE
BETTER CHANCES EXIST FOR RAIN AND THICKER CLOUD COVER. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING BACK IN FOR MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING INTO EARLY OCTOBER.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK
TROUGHING SITS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHEAST, PLACING ARIZONA AND THE FOUR
CORNERS IN A MODEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH NUMEROUS WAVES RIDING
NORTHWARD THROUGH IT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MID
LEVEL WAVE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA, WORKING TO
ADVECT GREATER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDING
LIFT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOISTURE
IS ONLY MARGINAL WITH PW AT OR UNDER 1.00 INCH, ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE PLUS OROGRAPHIC LIFTING FROM LOCAL TERRAIN
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF CONVECTION. SBCAPE AND MUCAPE ARE ONLY
MARGINAL AS WELL, MAINLY UNDER 750 J/KG, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DCAPE IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AROUND 1500 J/KG
LENDING TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORMS. AT THIS TIME, EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING WAVE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE DRY DAYS REGION-WIDE, THEN FOCUS
SHIFTS TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE WEST COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH HURRICANE
ODALYS AND HURRICANE POLO WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. DESPITE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY, ECMWF EFI
STILL SHOWS ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ONLY AROUND 50% FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE IN THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE, EXACT TRACK OF THE STORMS,
AND TIMING OF FEATURES, WHICH OVERALL AFFECTS WHERE POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING THAT
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR COULD BE IMPACTED BY
CLOUDS, RAIN, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES... BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO
WHAT EXTENT. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR ANY PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING COULD BE; HOWEVER, THIS IS
A SET UP TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, BREEZY TO
GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND AS
THE TROUGH TRANSLATES INLAND, FALLING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND STARTING SUNDAY THAT WILL CARRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA COULD KICK
OFF GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL RESULT IN A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT AT LAS
VEGAS VALLEY TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCE (10-20 PERCENT) OF A WIND
SHIFT WILL BE BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS.
SLIGHT-TO-MODERATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS TO KDAG, KIFP, AND KEED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FAVORED DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT
KDAG AND EASTERLY AT KIFP AND KEED, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF THE NEARBY THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION DIRECTLY OVER THE KIFP AND KEED TERMINALS
EXIST BETWEEN 21 AND 01Z WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CIGS AT OR
BELOW 10 KFT POSSIBLE. SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MOORE
AVIATION...SOULAT
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page