303
FXUS65 KVEF 241957
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1257 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2026
.KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH READINGS
RUNNING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
* A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER READINGS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY,
SUPPORTING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH
READINGS REACHING 3 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. HIGHS IN
THE DESERT VALLEYS WILL RANGE FROM THE 90S TO LOW 100S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS,
SUCH AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS, WILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 70S EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND A TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE SOCAL COAST MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED IN MOST AREAS, ALTHOUGH
PWATS OF 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES ARE BEING NOTED IN THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY NEAR LAKE HAVASU CITY. SBCAPE IS ALSO MARGINAL, WITH
VALUES GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 750 J/KG. HOWEVER, AS NOTED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSIONS, DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG SUGGEST THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS. BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES BEHIND THE DEPARTING AND
WEAKENING WAVE.
A MORE COMPLEX FORECAST LOOKS TO UNFOLD LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO GETS DRAWN INTO
THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE SYSTEMS, BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN TIMING REMAIN, WITH THE GFS BEING MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HOLDS IT
BACK. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE FROM
THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION, BUT SOME
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WPC HAS INCLUDED THESE AREAS IN A MARGINAL
RISK OUTLOOK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 (SUNDAY AND MONDAY), WITH PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA ON DAY 5
(MONDAY). COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
AS INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION KEEP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S, WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
OVERALL,
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS. THERE
IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A GUST OR TWO TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST (130 TO 170 DEGREES TRUE) BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z,
ALTHOUGH ANY GUSTS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) OF BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
OUTFLOW WINDS FROM CONVECTION OVER ARIZONA MOVING INTO THE VALLEY
DURING THE LATE EVENING (05Z TO 07Z). WINDS ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 8 KNOTS. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
AT MOST AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, INCLUDING KBIH, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-15, INCLUDING KDAG, KEED AND KIFP. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
DIRECT IMPACTS AT KEED AND KIFP. CIGS MAY ALSO FALL BELOW 10KFT AGL
NEAR ACTIVITY. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ALL SITES
SHOULD SEE DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...PLANZ
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