664
FXUS65 KVEF 250909
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
209 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER READINGS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL (MID 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT
VALLEYS) AND LOWS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL (THE 70S).
THIS PATTERN BREAKS LATE-WEEKEND LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND
BUILDING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA AND PULLS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REALLY IMPROVING ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
REGION LATE-WEEKEND AND CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOISTURE TAP ARRIVING INTO THE
WESTERN PROTONS OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY, OFFERING SPOTTY STORM AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THAT POTION OF THE
JET STREAM AND PULL NORTHWARD. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PUSH OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL TO OUR EAST; HOWEVER, THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WRAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. THE SHEER-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THAT
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH QUIETER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS LATE-MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN GUSTS TO 20 KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT GUSTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THIS DIRECTIONAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 20 KTS. GUSTS FALL OFF AFTER
SUNSET, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AROUND
8 KTS. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND OWENS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT KDAG, WHILE THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF SITES REMAIN LIGHT AND DIURNAL. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...SOULAT
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