177
FXUS65 KVEF 251735
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1035 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER READINGS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS UP
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL (MID 90S TO LOW 100S IN THE DESERT
VALLEYS) AND LOWS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL (THE 70S).
THIS PATTERN BREAKS LATE-WEEKEND LEADING TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND
BUILDING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA AND PULLS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
MODEL AGREEMENT IS REALLY IMPROVING ON THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
REGION LATE-WEEKEND AND CENTERING OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BY MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOISTURE TAP ARRIVING INTO THE
WESTERN PROTONS OF THE CWA INTO SUNDAY, OFFERING SPOTTY STORM AND
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOCUSED OVER ARIZONA. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM WHAT WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THAT POTION OF THE
JET STREAM AND PULL NORTHWARD. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PUSH OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE WELL TO OUR EAST; HOWEVER, THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL WRAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED OVER MOHAVE COUNTY. THE SHEER-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER COULD LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THAT
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH QUIETER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TIMES AND A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS WILL FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY,
BUT WILL BE LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 12 KNOTS OR
LESS. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...PLANZ
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