585
FXUS65 KVEF 252000
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1259 PM PDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING
OFF BY THE START OF THE WEEK.
* CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN CLOUDS, RAINFALL, AND COOLER READINGS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK 500MB RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID-90S TO LOW 100S WILL
BE COMMON IN THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SUCH
AS THE SPRING MOUNTAINS, WILL SEE HIGHS OF 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH MINIMUMS
STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. READINGS WILL BEGIN TO
COOL BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND INCREASED MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HOW THE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVOLVE AND INTERACT
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANES ODALYS AND POLO. THE INITIAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM ODALYS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO MOHAVE AND SOUTHERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MOISTURE FROM POLO WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR OVERALL
SOLUTIONS, BUT THE TROUGH'S TIMING WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES DEVELOP. IF IT MOVES FASTER, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL
BE PUSHED EAST TOWARD ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. A SLOWER TROUGH WOULD
DRAW MORE MOISTURE NORTHWARD, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WPC HAS PLACED THE
EASTERN HALF OF MOHAVE COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON MONDAY. STORMS THERE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, THOUGH THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN
WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. THE PRESENCE OF
THE CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALSO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH QUIETER
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE VEERING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF
THE SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT, BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT
OCCURRING BETWEEN 20Z AND 22Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TIMES AND A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY, EXCEPT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY DEVELOP A BIT EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND
OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE WINDS WILL FAVOR A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY,
BUT WILL BE LIGHTER WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 12 KNOTS OR
LESS. ALL AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...PLANZ
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