341
FXUS65 KVEF 270456
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FLASH FLOODING EARLY IN THE WEEK ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY.
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING BENEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, CHANGES TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE ON THE WAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FIRST HINT OF THIS
CHANGE WILL OCCUR TOMORROW AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
HURRICANE ODALYS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE MOJAVE DESERT AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
MOISTEN OUR ATMOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RATHER
DRY, BUT SOME SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN, ON MONDAY, A FAIRLY DEEP LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND INTERACT WITH SOME OF THIS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM BOTH ODALYS AND POLO OFF THE WEST COAST OF
MEXICO, WHILE ALSO DYNAMICALLY FORCING CONVECTION AS THE MID-
LEVELS COOL. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST ARIZONA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING MOVING IN WITH THE LOW
AND SOME ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLAY, WE DO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH
WILL BE FAVORABLY POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING LOW TO SEE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED INTENSE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS COORDINATED A MODERATE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
MONDAY, WHICH EXTENDS WEST INTO MOHAVE COUNTY AS WELL. RISKS OF
THIS CATEGORY USUALLY ONLY HAPPEN ONCE EVERY COUPLE YEARS IN OUR
REGION. WITH THIS IN MIND, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR PARTS OF MOHAVE COUNTY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WATCH TO BE EXPANDED IF WE SEE FORECAST
GUIDANCE TREND WETTER FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ARIZONA ON TUESDAY WITH
SOME WRAP AROUND RAINFALL POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN ACROSS MOHAVE COUNTY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME MIDWEEK
ONWARD AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS EXPECTED.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25
KNOTS WILL RETURN LATE IN THE MORNING (17Z TO 19Z) AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 15 PERCENT) OF A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS
SHOULD MAINLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR. MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT BASES WILL REMAIN AOA
15KFT AGL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, WHERE BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 12 TO 16
KNOTS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AREAWIDE LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AND SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN MOJAVE DESERT AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. VCSH HAS ALSO BEEN ADDED TO THE KEED TAF AFTER
27/2000Z AND TO THE KIFP TAF AFTER 28/0200Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...OUTLER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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