210
FXUS65 KVEF 271757
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1055 AM PDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHWEST
ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LATEST INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US FROM HURRICANE ODALYS. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF I-15, AS HURRICANE POLO CONTINUES TO PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. THIS MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TODAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR VIRGA AND SPRINKLES ACROSS THE
MOJAVE DESERT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA; CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERLAP WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM
THE TROUGH. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOHAVE COUNTY
FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING, AS THIS IS
WHERE INSTABILITY WILL OVERLAP WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT.
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE LIGHTER, RELYING PRIMARILY ON THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH ON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THINGS WILL DRY OUT AS THE TROUGH CLEARS OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN US WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND MILD WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
DAILY LATE SUMMER WIND PATTERN EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE LAS VEGAS
VALLEY INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER THIS EVENING. WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT OR UNDER 4 KT THIS MORNING, BUT EXPECT S-SW
WINDS TO INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER 19Z SUSTAINED 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
20-25 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED GUST 25-
30 KT IS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. GUSTS SUBSIDE
AFTER SUNSET, BUT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BETWEEN 8
AND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. SCT-BKN CIGS AT OR ABOVE 15 KFT; CIGS DOWN TO
10 KFT WITH SHOWER FORMATION OVERHEAD. DAILY WIND PATTERN EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH SPEEDS AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY.
ADDED VCTS AFTER 20Z MONDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS WITH ERRATIC DIRECTIONS, HEAVY RAIN LIGHTNING, AND LOWER
CEILINGS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...TYPICAL DAILY WIND
PATTERNS EXPECTED AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AROUND AND AFTER
19Z, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 KTS. KDAG IS THE EXCEPTION
AS SW-W WINDS INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER 20Z, WITH ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED AROUND THE
LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND CRV TERMINALS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z.
SCT-BKN AOA 15 KFT; CIGS DOWN TO 10 KFT WITH SHOWER FORMATION
OVERHEAD. A STREAM OF STEADIER RAIN SHIFTS NORTHWARD TONIGHT,
IMPACTING KIFP AND KEED AFTER 08Z...EXPECT LOWER CIGS 10-15KFT AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC GUSTS WITH THE RAIN. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE REGION,
WILL UPDATE FUTURE FORECASTS ACCORDINGLY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...MOORE
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