272
FXUS65 KVEF 282043
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
143 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, SMALL HAIL, AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN NYE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH IN
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR ALL THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN TODAY.
18Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME GOOD MOISTURE AT THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT BRINGS MORE
THUNDER AND LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR FLOODING RAIN EXCEPT IN AREAS
WHERE STRONGER CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE GREATER
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS TO THE EAST, MAINLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...ELEVATED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SURROUNDING THE VALLEY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL
DURING THE MID- TO LATE AFTERNOON. ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DUE TO
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL.
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH LINGERING VICINITY SHOWERS THEREAFTER. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION,
CEILINGS WILL BE SCT-BKN AROUND 10-12KFT, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND FORECAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION
INCREASES THEREAFTER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH,
INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KT COMMON. ONE EXCEPTION IS KBIH, WHERE GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AND ANOTHER IS KDAG, WHERE WINDS MAINTAIN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION WITH SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY. THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA,
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THESE STORMS
ARE DEVELOPING AT ISSUANCE, WITH VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED
FOR LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TERMINALS THROUGH
09-12Z TUESDAY, AND VICINITY SHOWERS PERSISTING THEREAFTER.
ERRATIC GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND CEILING/VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IF THESE STORMS
IMPACT AREA TERMINALS. THE WIND FORECAST IN THE PRESENCE OF
CONVECTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, A NORTHWESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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