280
FXUS65 KVEF 290533
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1032 PM PDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
* STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING, SMALL HAIL,
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN NYE
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. TO THE EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THERE
ARE ALSO A FEW STORMS MOVING SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE TROUGH IN
NORTHERN INYO COUNTY. THE MOISTURE SOURCE FOR ALL THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ODALYS.
WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED THAN TODAY.
18Z SOUNDING SHOWS SOME GOOD MOISTURE AT THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT. BEING ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT BRINGS MORE
THUNDER AND LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR FLOODING RAIN EXCEPT IN AREAS
WHERE STRONGER CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE GREATER
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS TO THE EAST, MAINLY OVER MOHAVE COUNTY
AND PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BEYOND TUESDAY, A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OUT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE VEGAS VALLEY OVER
THE PAST HOUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF WINDS
TURNING EASTERLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES
FARTHER EAST, BUT WEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. VICINITY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (AROUND 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AROUND
DAYBREAK AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF CEILING/
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
ANY CONVECTION. CEILINGS WILL BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 10KFT AGL BUT
COULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8KFT AGL IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CEILINGS LIFTING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
TWENTYNINE PALMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT,
WITH KEED AND KIFP EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. WINDS AWAY
FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 12 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHERLY COMPONENTS, AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON AT MOST
TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 10KFT AGL BUT COULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 8KFT AGL IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. ALL AREAS
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...BERC
AVIATION...PLANZ
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