830
FXUS65 KVEF 290801
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
101 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS RELATIVELY LIGHT (ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED
TO PRECIPITATION RATES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING), WITH GAUGES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE TODAY'S
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DECREASED RELATIVE TO WHAT IT WAS
YESTERDAY, IT ISN'T ZERO. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS
HIGHLIGHTED MOHAVE COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
MEANWHILE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. OUTSIDE
OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. DRY, MILD
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE VEGAS VALLEY OVER
THE PAST HOUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20 TO 30 PERCENT) OF WINDS
TURNING EASTERLY FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVES
FARTHER EAST, BUT WEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY. VICINITY
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY, WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE (AROUND 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL AROUND
DAYBREAK AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF CEILING/
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR
ANY CONVECTION. CEILINGS WILL BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 10KFT AGL BUT
COULD DECREASE TO AROUND 8KFT AGL IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY, WITH SHOWERS
ENDING AND CEILINGS LIFTING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
TWENTYNINE PALMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT,
WITH KEED AND KIFP EXPERIENCING THE GREATEST IMPACTS. WINDS AWAY
FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING BELOW 12 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL FAVOR
NORTHERLY COMPONENTS, AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON AT MOST
TAF SITES. CEILINGS WILL BE SCT TO BKN AROUND 10KFT AGL BUT COULD
DECREASE TO AROUND 8KFT AGL IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS. ALL AREAS
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PLANZ
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