438
FXUS65 KVEF 291209
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
509 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH. PRECIPITATION
WITH THESE SHOWERS IS RELATIVELY LIGHT (ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED
TO PRECIPITATION RATES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING), WITH GAUGES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. WHILE TODAY'S
FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DECREASED RELATIVE TO WHAT IT WAS
YESTERDAY, IT ISN'T ZERO. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS
HIGHLIGHTED MOHAVE COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.
MEANWHILE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF CLARK, LINCOLN, AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. OUTSIDE
OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. DRY, MILD
CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS REFORMING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE VALLEY WITH
THESE SHOWERS APPROACHING THE TERMINAL INTO THE EARLY MORNING. THERE
WILL BE CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID MORNING STORMS IN THIS LINE OF
SHOWERS, BUT LOOK TO BE MORE MISS THAN HIT. BREEZY ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THESE STORM PASS THROUGH THE AREA. STORM CHANCES
EXIT FOR THE LATE MORNING BUT SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. MORE CONSTANTLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS PUSH EAST INTO THE MID EVENING AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST. EXPECT WINDS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE INTO THE
LATE NIGHT. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARRIVE INTO THE MID MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. SHOWER AND STORMS ARE BUILDING AROUND
KVGT AND KHND WHICH COULD CAUSE BRIEF MOMENTS OF STRONGER WINDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE FOR THOSE AREAS INTO THE
MID MORNING AS STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS BUILD. WIDESPREAD GUSTY
WINDS ARRIVE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT FOR SOME OF THE TAF SITES. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY PUSHES MORE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING, FOCUSING
MORE ON KEED AND KIFP BEFORE EXITING INTO THE NIGHT AS WINDS
REDUCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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