665
FXUS65 KVEF 291745
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1045 AM PDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.
* MILD WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SHOWERS IS RELATIVELY LIGHT (ESPECIALLY
WHEN COMPARED TO PRECIPITATION RATES FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING), WITH GAUGES ACROSS THE AREA SHOWING RAIN
RATES AROUND 0.10 TO 0.30 INCHES PER HOUR. THESE SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.
WHILE TODAY'S FLASH FLOOD THREAT HAS DECREASED RELATIVE TO WHAT
IT WAS YESTERDAY, IT ISN'T ZERO. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
(WPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED MOHAVE COUNTY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. MEANWHILE WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF CLARK,
LINCOLN, AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES WITH A MARGINAL CHANCE (LEVEL
1 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING. OUTSIDE OF MODERATE-TO-HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL,
LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, TAKING THE MOISTURE
AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. RIDGING WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK UP WITH WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. DRY,
MILD CONDITIONS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID
FOR THE 18Z FORECAST
PACKAGE...SHOWERS CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LAS
VEGAS VALLEY, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET BEFORE ENDING. THERE REMAINS A WINDOW FROM ROUGHLY
20Z- 23Z WHEN STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (AROUND A 20% CHANCE). EXPECT LIGHTNING STRIKES, ERRATIC
GUSTY WINDS, AND CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND
4-5KFT AND AROUND 5SM RESPECTIVELY WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF IT
IMPACTS THE TERMINAL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, CEILINGS
AROUND 6-8KFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO 10-12KFT THIS
EVENING, CLEARING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED, BEFORE
GUSTS DIMINISH AND WIND SPEEDS DROP UNDER 10KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AT
ISSUANCE, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
TERMINALS (KIFP AND KEED) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY DURING A
BRIEF WINDOW MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES, WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BE ELEVATED/GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT COMMON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHTER OVERNIGHT FOR MOST, WITH LINGERING NORTHERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE KDAG/THE WESTER MOJAVE,
WHERE WINDS RETURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS AROUND 6-10KFT COULD BE LOWER WITH
PASSING SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO
EAST EXPECTED THIS EVENING ONWARD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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