923
FXUS65 KVEF 141101
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
401 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL LINGER DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S COOL TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WINDS MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO WARM BACK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, ENERGY WILL DROP IN BEHIND IT ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA. AS THIS DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTELRY WINDS
WILL PICK UP ACROSS THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, THE MOJAVE
NATIONAL PRESERVE, AND THE CADIZ BASIN FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS WILL
PEAK IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE ON THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
CLOSES OFF AND A 35 TO 45 KNOT 700 MB JET SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL CHURN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHERN BAJA OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE
EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS LOW SPINS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
OVER THE WEEKEND, HURRICANE SIMON WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, WEAKENING AS HE MOVES INTO THE GULF. GIVEN THE
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW AS SIMON MOVES NORTH, SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE BEGUN TO PICK UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ADDING ANOTHER MOVING PIECE TO THE PUZZLE
THAT IS THE LONG TERM FORECAST, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO DROP
INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SCATTERED-TO-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO THE
REGION. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THAT SHOW UP AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MULTIPLE MOVING PARTS TO THIS PUZZLE AND HOW FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD THIS OCCURS, UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK'S FORECAST IS CURRENTLY LOW.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD,
FAVORING A SLIGHT NORTHWEST COMPONENT THIS MORNING AND A NORTH-
NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF 10+ KNOTS IS 50-80%
THROUGH 23Z, FALLING TO 20-30% AFTERWARDS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...NORTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-30
KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN NOW AND SUNSET. WINDS WEAKEN
THIS EVENING BUT STAY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...WOODS
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