100
FXUS65 KVEF 150455
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
955 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH GUST SPEEDS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH CONTINUE TODAY
AS A CLOSED LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND LIFTS EASTWARD OUT
OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY, ENERGY LEFT BEHIND FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED OPEN WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH A VORT LOBE RIDING
ALONG THE LEFTOVER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WILL CLOSE OFF
OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A 65-75 KT
JET AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. THIS TRAJECTORY OF WINDS WILL RESULT IN
EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WHICH COULD BRING OCCASIONAL GUSTS
BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH TO LOCATIONS NESTLED IN VALLEYS ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANKS OF AREA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF
THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND HIGHWAY 160
IN PAHRUMP. AS A RESULT, THE WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, AND EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 11 AM FRIDAY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK, THE CLARK COUNTY
MOUNTAINS, FAR SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY, AND MOST OF MOHAVE COUNTY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WILL USHER MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SIMON INTO THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND WILL
STICK AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, WITHOUT INSTABILITY,
THIS MOISTURE IS UNLIKELY TO BRING PRECIPITATION... HOWEVER, A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SWING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY
NEEDED TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
RIGHT NOW, THERE ARE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 8000 AND
9000 FEET. STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST DEVELOPS AND CONFIDENCE
INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25KT RETURNING BY MID-
MORNING. WINDS THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING, WITH
GUSTS INCREASING INCREASING TO 25-30KT, PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET.
GUSTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-12KT CONTINUING THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY WITH SOME VARIABILITY AND SPEEDS BETWEEN
5-10KT. THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
RESUME AREAWIDE, WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KT COMMON THEREAFTER, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40KT EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FROM KIFP TO KEED. NORTHEASTERLY GUSTS WILL
HOLD OFF ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT/KDAG UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS THERE CLOSER TO 20KT. GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THEREAFTER, THOUGH GUSTS BEGIN TO DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER
SUNSET. KBIH IN THE NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY IS THE OUTLIER, WHERE
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN GUSTY UP- ALLEY WINDS TO
20-25KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...SOULAT
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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