271
FXUS65 KVEF 151107
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
407 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHWEST, A
SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH.
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT TO BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER DEATH VALLEY, SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND
WESTERN ARIZONA AS A 60-70KT JET SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT IN
VALLEYS NEXT TO TERRAIN, INCLUDING AREAS LIKE PAHRUMP AND AROUND THE
HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS TO VALLEY ROADWAYS, INCLUDING INTERSTATE
40 EAST OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
HIGHWAY 160 IN PAHRUMP, DUE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS ARE POSSIBLE. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORIES AS THEY CAPTURE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR WIND IMPACTS AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST WIND TIMING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY, AND
WHILE WIND IMPACTS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS GUSTS DROP BELOW 40 MPH-
CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY ONWARD. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE THAT MAY
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HURRICANE SIMON. AT THE MOMENT, MOISTURE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS HIGH AS WHAT WE SAW WITH THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL, BUT WHAT IMPACTS WE WILL SEE IS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS ON IVT PLUME LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30%-
40% CHANCES THAT THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY, AND SNOW LEVEL AROUND
9000FT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAIN LOW THOUGH AS THIS SYSTEM
IS FAR INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THINGS
DEVELOP. WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHERLY BREEZES RAMP UP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIODS OF WIND
DIRECTION FROM 040-060 ARE POSSIBLE, IF NOT LIKELY, BUT ON AVERAGE
WIND DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE MORE 010-030.
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE LIKELY (70% OR MORE) FROM 15Z THROUGH 03Z.
AFTERWARDS, WIND MAGNITUDE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN WITH ~50% CHANCE
OF 20+ KNOT GUSTS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS. GUSTS PEAK IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH 20-35 KNOTS LIKELY (70% OR MORE). WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, BUT JUST HOW ELEVATED IS
UNCERTAIN. IF THE LOW LEVELS CAN STAY MIXED OUT, GUSTS OF 20-35
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...WOODS
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