984
FXUS65 KVEF 151804
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1104 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTHWEST, A
SHORTWAVE WAS DIGGING SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS MAIN TROUGH.
THESE TWO PIECES OF ENERGY ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT TO BRING GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. WIDESPREAD GUSTS
OVER 40 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER DEATH VALLEY, SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, AND
WESTERN ARIZONA AS A 60-70KT JET SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
CONTINUING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF DOWNSLOPE WIND ENHANCEMENT IN
VALLEYS NEXT TO TERRAIN, INCLUDING AREAS LIKE PAHRUMP AND AROUND THE
HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS. IMPACTS TO VALLEY ROADWAYS, INCLUDING INTERSTATE
40 EAST OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
HIGHWAY 160 IN PAHRUMP, DUE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS ARE POSSIBLE. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORIES AS THEY CAPTURE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR WIND IMPACTS AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST WIND TIMING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH PULLS AWAY, AND
WHILE WIND IMPACTS SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AS GUSTS DROP BELOW 40 MPH-
CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST SUNDAY ONWARD. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY
AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
AFTER DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, WILL NEED TO
WATCH HOW A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE THAT MAY
ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM HURRICANE SIMON. AT THE MOMENT, MOISTURE
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS HIGH AS WHAT WE SAW WITH THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL, BUT WHAT IMPACTS WE WILL SEE IS UNCERTAIN AS THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE VERY DIFFERENT IDEAS ON IVT PLUME LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY
INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 30%-
40% CHANCES THAT THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY, AND SNOW LEVEL AROUND
9000FT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAIN LOW THOUGH AS THIS SYSTEM
IS FAR INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THINGS
DEVELOP. WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLEAR
SKIES WITH BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BUILDING WITH GUSTS PEAKING JUST BELOW 30 KTS.
THESE WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 00Z AND REDUCE
SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 24 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REDUCING AGAIN, BUT REMAINING BREEZY. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CLEAR SKIES LAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO SOME SHELTERING AND ITS POSITION IN RELATION
TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, KBIH KEEPS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES, THE STRONGEST BEING
IFP WHICH LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO 40 KT GUSTS. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY FOR ALL BUT KDAG
AND KBIH. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR KEED AND KIFP IN THE
LATE NIGHT, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION (WITH EXCEPTION OF KBIH,
WHICH STAYS LIGHT) HODS OFF UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
STRONG WINDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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