182
FXUS65 KVEF 151900
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS, ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING
THE PAHRUMP VALLEY AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS IN
ARIZONA. STRONG CROSSWINDS COULD MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON I-40 WEST
OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS AND HIGHWAY 160 NEAR PAHRUMP. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
11 AM PDT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY,
ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY ONWARD. AFTER A BRIEF
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ATTENTION TURNS TO HOW A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM HURRICANE
SIMON. CURRENTLY, MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS HIGH AS WHAT
WE SAW WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THE
IMPACTS THAT WILL BE SEEN IN OUR REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) PLUME LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS 300 TO 500KG/M/S IVT VALUES OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS VALUES OF
250 TO 400KG/M/S AT THE SAME TIME, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES DISPLACED
FARTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 8000FT TO 9000FT, SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAINS LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS
SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLEAR
SKIES WITH BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS LAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE BUILDING WITH GUSTS PEAKING JUST BELOW 30 KTS.
THESE WINDS LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AROUND 00Z AND REDUCE
SLIGHTLY WITH GUSTS AROUND 24 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REDUCING AGAIN, BUT REMAINING BREEZY. STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
KTS.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CLEAR SKIES LAST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO SOME SHELTERING AND ITS POSITION IN RELATION
TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, KBIH KEEPS MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION SEE STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS. GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS ABOVE 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES, THE STRONGEST BEING
IFP WHICH LOOKS TO GET CLOSE TO 40 KT GUSTS. WINDS REDUCE INTO THE
EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY TO GUSTY FOR ALL BUT KDAG
AND KBIH. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FOR KEED AND KIFP IN THE
LATE NIGHT, WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION (WITH EXCEPTION OF KBIH,
WHICH STAYS LIGHT) HODS OFF UNTIL THE MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE
STRONG WINDS BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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