417
FXUS65 KVEF 160500
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION OF THE STRONG WINDS, ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, INCLUDING
THE PAHRUMP VALLEY AND AREAS WEST OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS IN
ARIZONA. STRONG CROSSWINDS COULD MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ON I-40 WEST
OF THE HUALAPAI MOUNTAINS AND HIGHWAY 160 NEAR PAHRUMP. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND ADVISORY, WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
11 AM PDT FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS SHOULD EASE BY MIDDAY,
ALTHOUGH BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS RETURNING SUNDAY ONWARD. AFTER A BRIEF
WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP A FEW DEGREES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ATTENTION TURNS TO HOW A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
REMNANT MOISTURE POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM HURRICANE
SIMON. CURRENTLY, MOISTURE LEVELS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS HIGH AS WHAT
WE SAW WITH THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL EARLIER THIS WEEK, BUT THE
IMPACTS THAT WILL BE SEEN IN OUR REGION REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT
(IVT) PLUME LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY INTERACT WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE GFS HAS 300 TO 500KG/M/S IVT VALUES OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY EVENING, WHILE THE ECMWF HAS VALUES OF
250 TO 400KG/M/S AT THE SAME TIME, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES DISPLACED
FARTHER WEST OVER THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH 20 PERCENT CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE 8000FT TO 9000FT, SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN NEVADA ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THESE DETAILS REMAINS LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS
SYSTEM IS IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLEAR
SKIES WITH BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE FEW HOUR PERIOD LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE GUSTS DIMINISH, BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED 6-12 KT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS (020 TO 040 DEG)
RETURN AROUND OR AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS AND WINDS BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND
DURING THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS LIKELY DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT AT TIMES PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND LV VALLEY SITES. KIFP AND KEED
KEEP STRONG GUSTS WELL INTO TOMORROW WHILE LV VALLEY SITES MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT FOR
KBIH BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON GUSTING OVER 20 KT AT TIMES
BEFORE SUNSET. KDAG WILL FAVOR MORE OF A NE TO ENE DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS ALSO TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...PLANZ
AVIATION...MOORE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page