449
FXUS65 KVEF 160752
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1252 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND IMPACT
DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WERE REPORTS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE IN THE
TERRAIN WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH REPORTED AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
INTERCEPTED A 50KT+ 850-700MB JET. THIS LOWER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SITTING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
REMAIN DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH REST OF
TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING THIS MORNING.
WHILE GUSTS ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED AT THE MOMENT, EXPECTING A QUICK
UPTICK IN THE VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AS BETTER MIXING OCCURS
WITH SUNRISE AS WELL AS AN AREA OF BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10AM
THIS MORNING WHICH LOOKS GOOD AS ADDITIONAL MINOR WIND IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE UPTICK IN WINDS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THEN GUSTS UNDER 20 MPH ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL TODAY, TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUING TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR WEATHER IMPACTS AROUND MIDWEEK
AS A DEEP WEST COAST TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEEPENING LOW, WHICH SOME MODELS HAVE
CLOSING OFF AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS
FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE THAT ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM SIMON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS HOW DEEP IT WILL BE ONCE IT
DOES SO. IN ADDITION, MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS ON HOW AN IVT PLUME SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA
OR WESTERN ARIZONA. ALL THAT TO SAY- THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. IT'S FAIR TO SAY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT SOME
POINT AFTER MONDAY, WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000-9000FT, BUT RAIN
IMPACTS WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT JUST OCCURRED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL. THERE ALSO SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, LIKELY TUESDAY, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
WIND IMPACTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN EXACT TIMING OF RAIN, WHERE
THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR, AND HOW MUCH SNOW TO EXPECT IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.WITH THE INCOMING SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLEAR
SKIES WITH BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS LAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE MAY BE FEW HOUR PERIOD LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE GUSTS DIMINISH, BUT EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS
TO REMAIN ELEVATED 6-12 KT. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS (020 TO 040 DEG)
RETURN AROUND OR AFTER 16Z WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS AND WINDS BEGIN A DIMINISHING TREND
DURING THE EVENING, WITH GUSTS LIKELY DROPPING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...CLEAR SKIES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KT AT TIMES PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
FOR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND LV VALLEY SITES. KIFP AND KEED
KEEP STRONG GUSTS WELL INTO TOMORROW WHILE LV VALLEY SITES MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 16Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT FOR
KBIH BECOME SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON GUSTING OVER 20 KT AT TIMES
BEFORE SUNSET. KDAG WILL FAVOR MORE OF A NE TO ENE DIRECTION WITH
GUSTS ALSO TO 30 KT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MOORE
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