501
FXUS65 KVEF 162150
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
250 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING, LEADING TO CALMER AND COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND IMPACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE STRONGER, HAZARDOUS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED, WITH MOST OF THE AREAS
SEEING LINGERING BREEZY WINDS THAT WILL REDUCE INTO THE EVENING.
SATURDAY WILL OFFER ANOTHER BATCH OF BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, BUT
SUNDAY WILL BE ON THE QUIETER SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REDUCE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEING HIGHS ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS (UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S) WITH
THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING DEATH VALLEY WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE: IN THE LOW 90S.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS RETURN AS ANOTHER THROUGH
PATTERN BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION, AND WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION, IT WILL TAB INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC AND TRANSPORT SOME SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING TO NAIL THE TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN CHANCES AND THERE IS
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TO BE DELAYED, BUT THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THAT
EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THAT TIME WILL
OFFER A DIRECT LINE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OFFERING OUR
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND INCREASED RAIN RATE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS
WHERE A LOT OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE, WITH SOME SLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE'S MOVEMENT, AND OTHERS PUSHING MULTIPLE LOWS THROUGH THE
AREA. BOTH OUTCOMES CALL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO LAST INTO THAT WEEKEND,
BUT GREATLY DIFFER ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND OVERALL IMPACTS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS LINGERING RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOTHING
LARGELY IMPACTFUL. MUCH CAN CHANGE IN OUR LONGER TERM FORECAST, SO
BE SURE TO CHECK IN AS IT DEVELOPS!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE
GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, WITH DIRECTIONS BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE BUT STILL MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT. NORTHEAST
BREEZES RETURN SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. MORE TYPICAL SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 00Z FORECAST PACKAGE...GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT, WIND DIRECTIONS WILL FAVOR NORTHEAST TO EAST
DIRECTIONS, WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS. WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN
MOST AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...PLANZ
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page