094
FXUS65 KVEF 170455
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
954 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* GUSTY WINDS ARE DIMINISHING, LEADING TO CALMER AND COOLER WEATHER
INTO THE WEEKEND.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST AND IMPACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE NEXT FRIDAY.
THE STRONGER HAZARDOUS WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED, WITH MOST OF THE AREAS
SEEING LINGERING BREEZY WINDS THAT WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING.
SATURDAY WILL OFFER ANOTHER BATCH OF BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, BUT
SUNDAY WILL BE ON THE QUIETER SIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REDUCE
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEING HIGHS ROUGHLY 5
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST AREAS (UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S) WITH
THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING DEATH VALLEY WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
AVERAGE: IN THE LOW 90S.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK WILL SEE BREEZY WINDS RETURN AS ANOTHER THROUGH
PATTERN BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION, AND WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. AS THIS TROUGH
PUSHES CLOSER TO THE REGION, IT WILL TAB INTO SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC AND TRANSPORT SOME SHOWERS INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING TO NAIL THE TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN CHANCES AND THERE IS
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE TIME OF ARRIVAL TO BE DELAYED, BUT THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS TO ARRIVE EARLY
TUESDAY. THESE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THAT
EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING TO INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH CENTERS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH AND IT'S ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THAT TIME WILL
OFFER A DIRECT LINE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OFFERING OUR
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND INCREASED RAIN RATE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS
WHERE A LOT OF THE MODELS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE, WITH SOME SLOWING THE
LOW PRESSURE'S MOVEMENT, AND OTHERS PUSHING MULTIPLE LOWS THROUGH THE
AREA. BOTH OUTCOMES CALL FOR RAIN CHANCES TO LAST INTO THAT WEEKEND,
BUT GREATLY DIFFER ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND OVERALL IMPACTS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS LINGERING RAIN INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT NOTHING
LARGELY IMPACTFUL. MUCH CAN CHANGE IN OUR LONGER TERM FORECAST, SO
BE SURE TO CHECK IN AS IT DEVELOPS!
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER SPEEDS
HAVE LARGELY FALLEN TO OR BELOW 11 KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE
DIMINISHING TREND. DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES TOWARDS
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 6 KT. NORTHEAST WINDS
RETURN SATURDAY AROUND AND AFTER 16Z, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
DIMINISHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS. KIFP IS THE EXCEPTION AS WINDS
ARE FUNNELED THROUGH THE TERRAIN IN THE CRV WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-
15 KT PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 10Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS
ON SATURDAY FAVOR A N TO NE DIRECTION AND WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. KDAG AND
KIFP HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT AT TIMES
THOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MURDOCK
AVIATION...MOORE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
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