473
FXUS65 KVEF 170819
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
119 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT RAIN
IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
AND IMPACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOWED A DECENTLY
ORGANIZED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AS
RAIN AND LIGHTNING DEVELOPED. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A PIECE
OF ENERGY THAT WAS CUT OFF AND LEFT BEHIND FROM THE SHORTWAVE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK UP THIS FEATURE
AND WHAT IT WILL DO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AROUND 1.00 PWATS WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WERE SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH.
HREF HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS PWATS INCREASE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN ARIZONA. MODEST MOISTURE COMBINED WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION
ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIGHT RAIN
TO DEVELOP AT TIMES LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. UNSURE HOW
MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND, AND PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IS LOW- SO LIKELY WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL IMPACTS WITH THIS
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IF BETTER RAINFALL WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD
BE IN THE TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW COULD ENHANCE LIGHT RAIN. 90TH PERCENTILE "WORST CASE SCENARIO"
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOW ABOUT 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE AREAS,
SO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MODELS SEEM BEHIND
ON PICKING UP ON THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND WHAT IT WILL DO,
MESOANALYSIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PAINT A BETTER
PICTURE OF WHAT MAY OCCUR AND ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS OUT AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN FLOW,
ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ON TUESDAY AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH
APPROACHES, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES
FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH HAVE DROPPED AND GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 50%, SO WIND IMPACTS ARE BECOMING LESS OF A
CONCERN. WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING TA TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES PEAKING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WITH ALL AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HIGHEST CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE IN INYO COUNTY
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SET UP. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY,
MAINLY ABOVE 9000FT. ALL THAT SAID- THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES INLAND, AS WELL AS DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS AND IMPACTS AS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER SPEEDS
HAVE LARGELY FALLEN TO OR BELOW 11 KT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THE
DIMINISHING TREND. DIRECTIONS MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES TOWARDS
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH SPEEDS UNDER 6 KT. NORTHEAST WINDS
RETURN SATURDAY AROUND AND AFTER 16Z, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
DIMINISHING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT ALL SITES, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING SPEEDS FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS. KIFP IS THE EXCEPTION AS WINDS
ARE FUNNELED THROUGH THE TERRAIN IN THE CRV WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-
15 KT PERSISTING THROUGH AROUND 10Z BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS
ON SATURDAY FAVOR A N TO NE DIRECTION AND WILL BE LIGHTER, WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS IN MOST AREAS. KDAG AND
KIFP HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT AT TIMES
THOUGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH INCREASING MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MOORE
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