926
FXUS65 KVEF 171139
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
439 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT RAIN
IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
AND IMPACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOWED A DECENTLY
ORGANIZED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AS RAIN AND LIGHTNING DEVELOPED. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WAS CUT OFF AND LEFT BEHIND FROM THE
SHORTWAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK
UP THIS FEATURE AND WHAT IT WILL DO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED AROUND 1.00 PWATS WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WERE
SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH. HREF HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA. MODEST MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AT TIMES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE
GROUND, AND PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS LOW-
SO LIKELY WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL IMPACTS WITH THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. IF BETTER RAINFALL WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD BE IN
THE TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD ENHANCE LIGHT RAIN. 90TH PERCENTILE "WORST CASE SCENARIO"
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOW ABOUT 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS, SO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MODELS
SEEM BEHIND ON PICKING UP ON THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND WHAT IT WILL
DO, MESOANALYSIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PAINT A
BETTER PICTURE OF WHAT MAY OCCUR AND ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS OUT AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
FLOW, ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ON TUESDAY AS THE
DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH HAVE
DROPPED AND GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 50%, SO WIND IMPACTS ARE
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW AND MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
TA TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES PEAKING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A 30%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN INYO COUNTY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SET UP.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY, MAINLY ABOVE 9000FT. ALL THAT
SAID- THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND, AS WELL AS
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS
AND IMPACTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UNDER 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS
EVENING, WHEN WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN BECOME VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH CEILINGS BECOMING SCT-BKN BETWEEN 7-10KFT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS SHOWERS DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL ASIDE FROM LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES REMAINS LOW. UNTIL THEN, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AROUND 5-10KT THE NEXT 24 HOURS, MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR MOST TERMINALS BEFORE SETTLING INTO
TYPICAL DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WITH SOME VARIABILITY THIS EVENING.
EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE KDAG, WHERE WINDS REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KT EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON, AND KIFP WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 10-15KT THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO AROUND 6-10KFT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERSPREAD SOUTHEASTERN
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHERN NEVADA, AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page