594
FXUS65 KVEF 171855
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1155 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY, BUT RAIN
IMPACTS ARE NOT LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
* PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
AND IMPACT DETAILS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH THE NIGHT SHOWED A DECENTLY
ORGANIZED CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
AS RAIN AND LIGHTNING DEVELOPED. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WAS CUT OFF AND LEFT BEHIND FROM THE
SHORTWAVE THE PAST FEW DAYS. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO PICK
UP THIS FEATURE AND WHAT IT WILL DO THE NEXT 36 HOURS. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED AROUND 1.00 PWATS WITH THIS FEATURE THAT WERE
SLOWLY CREEPING NORTH. HREF HAS A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND SHOWS
PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 0.75 INCHES BY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN ARIZONA. MODEST MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH VORTICITY ADVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF
THE LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AT TIMES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. UNSURE HOW MUCH WILL REACH THE
GROUND, AND PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IS LOW-
SO LIKELY WILL NOT SEE RAINFALL IMPACTS WITH THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. IF BETTER RAINFALL WERE TO DEVELOP, IT WOULD BE IN
THE TERRAIN OF MOHAVE AND CLARK COUNTIES AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
COULD ENHANCE LIGHT RAIN. 90TH PERCENTILE "WORST CASE SCENARIO"
24HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOW ABOUT 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN THESE
AREAS, SO HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. GIVEN THE MODELS
SEEM BEHIND ON PICKING UP ON THIS PIECE OF ENERGY AND WHAT IT WILL
DO, MESOANALYSIS LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PAINT A
BETTER PICTURE OF WHAT MAY OCCUR AND ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
AFTER THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS OUT AND IS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN
FLOW, ANOTHER MORE POTENT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. ON TUESDAY AS THE
DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES, BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP. PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH HAVE
DROPPED AND GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 50%, SO WIND IMPACTS ARE
BECOMING LESS OF A CONCERN. WITH STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW AND MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
TA TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS CHANCES PEAKING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ALL AREAS SEEING AT LEAST A 30%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL BE IN INYO COUNTY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO SET UP.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY, MAINLY ABOVE 9000FT. ALL THAT
SAID- THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND, AS WELL AS
DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS
AND IMPACTS AS MODEL DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 7000 FT AGL AFFECTING THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING DUE
EAST. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, BUT ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE NON-IMPACTFUL AND FAILS TO REACH KBIH NOR KDAG. SHOWERS CUT OFF
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT, BUT A SECONDARY BATCH ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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