526
FXUS65 KVEF 172028
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
128 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* A MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL ISOALTED-TO-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL (E.G., SPRINKLES RUINING A FRESH
CAR WASH) AS RAIN WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH THE DRY LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IN ORDER TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. ASIDE FROM LIGHT,
ISOLATED SHOWERS, WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, FOCUS SHIFTS TO
THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING AS LATE AS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION FAVORS A QUICKER MOVING TROUGH THAN ITS
ECMWF COUNTERPART. IN ADDITION TO DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THERE REMAIN
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
CLOUD
COVER CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 7000 FT AGL AFFECTING THE SITE THIS AFTERNOON TROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NON-IMPACTFUL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF NON-IMPACTFUL RAIN MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA IN THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING DUE
EAST. WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE EARLY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE LATE NIGHT. WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH, BUT ANY RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE NON-IMPACTFUL AND FAILS TO REACH KBIH NOR KDAG. SHOWERS CUT OFF
INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT, BUT A SECONDARY BATCH ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
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