251
FXUS65 KVEF 180457
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
957 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
* A MORE ROBUST TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY.
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA BEGINS TO
SHIFT EASTWARD, WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL ISOALTED-TO-
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS ACROSS
MOHAVE, CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION IMPACTS
FROM THESE SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL (E.G., SPRINKLES RUINING A FRESH
CAR WASH) AS RAIN WILL HAVE TO COMPETE WITH THE DRY LOW-LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IN ORDER TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. ASIDE FROM LIGHT,
ISOLATED SHOWERS, WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
MILD WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, FOCUS SHIFTS TO
THE TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION, BREEZY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT BASIN ON
TUESDAY, SPREADING ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING AS LATE AS FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION FAVORS A QUICKER MOVING TROUGH THAN ITS
ECMWF COUNTERPART. IN ADDITION TO DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, THERE REMAIN
DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD
THROUGH 08Z, VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN
THE REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT, VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE LOW SHOWER COVERAGE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 8
KNOTS OR LESS IN ALL AREAS. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...STESSMAN
AVIATION...MURDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page