591
FXUS65 KVEF 180751
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1251 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK.
* A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO WESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA CONTINUED TO PRODUCE RAIN IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT. BASED
ON RADAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MESOANALYSIS- THE CIRCULATION WAS
LIKELY SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT AND BE ABSORBED
INTO THE FLOW TODAY AND TOMORROW, WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING IN
MOHAVE COUNTY AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN.
ON MONDAY, WHILE THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF WILL BE MUCH WEAKER, THE
MOISTURE IT HAS BROUGHT UP WITH IT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. WITH 0.70
TO 0.90 INCH PWATS IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE I-15, WEAK RESIDUAL
FORCING, AND LOW END INSTABILITY AS THE SUN COMES OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY
DEVELOP. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, THOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TERRAIN OF CLARK COUNTY. AS CLOUDS ERODE
MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.
THE NEXT MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH A
TRACK THATS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS THIS
TREND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. THE OVERALL IDEA REMAINS THE
SAME- PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOST AREAS HAVING AT LEAST A
LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
CHANCES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL
SET UP. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN THOUGH WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW ONLY FOCUSED ON THE SIERRA WITH SNOW
LEVELS 9000-10000FT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES
THOUGH AS THERE REMAINS A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST
ON FRIDAY AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES (50%+)
FOR IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH REMAIN ISOLATED, FOCUSED ON
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OWENS VALLEY ON TUESDAY THEN MAINLY IN
THE TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY, SO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WIND
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH
THE INCOMING RAIN AND UPPER LEVEL LOW, DROPPING FROM NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 8 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE AN
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FIELD
THROUGH 08Z, VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD GIVEN
THE REDUCTION IN SHOWER COVERAGE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING, FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND FAR EASTERN SOUTHERN NEVADA LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WHILE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT, VCSH HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE LOW SHOWER COVERAGE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING 8
KNOTS OR LESS IN ALL AREAS. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, FOLLOWED
BY GRADUALLY DECREASING COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PLANZ
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