000
FXUS65 KVEF 181147
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
447 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
MONDAY, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
* A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO WESTERN ARIZONA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA CONTINUED TO PRODUCE RAIN IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON RADAR AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MESOANALYSIS- THE
CIRCULATION WAS LIKELY SITTING OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
OUT AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE FLOW TODAY AND TOMORROW, WEAKEN AS IT
DOES SO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN. ON MONDAY, WHILE THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER, THE MOISTURE IT HAS BROUGHT UP WITH IT WILL
STILL BE IN PLACE. WITH 0.70 TO 0.90 INCH PWATS IN PLACE SOUTH OF
THE I-15, WEAK RESIDUAL FORCING, AND LOW END INSTABILITY AS THE
SUN COMES OUT IN THE AFTERNOON- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY, THOUGH A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE TERRAIN OF
CLARK COUNTY. AS CLOUDS ERODE MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEAK WITH A
TRACK THATS FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LOW CENTER AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTH- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS TREND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AS WELL AS HIGHER SNOW LEVELS. THE OVERALL
IDEA REMAINS THE SAME- PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH MOST
AREAS HAVING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND CHANCES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON INYO COUNTY
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL SET UP. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE COME DOWN
THOUGH WITH THE WARMER AIRMASS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW ONLY
FOCUSED ON THE SIERRA WITH SNOW LEVELS 9000-10000FT. WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES THOUGH AS THERE REMAINS A WIDE
RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AND
MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST US. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT FRIDAY WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY AND
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY. GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. HIGHER PROBABILITIES (50%+) FOR
IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH REMAIN ISOLATED, FOCUSED ON
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OWENS VALLEY ON TUESDAY THEN MAINLY IN
THE TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY, SO WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT WIND
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL WITH
THE INCOMING RAIN AND UPPER LEVEL LOW, DROPPING FROM NEAR NORMAL
TUESDAY TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID-
LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 8KT OR LESS THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH MID-LEVEL AND HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LINGERING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTPS://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page