975
FXUS65 KVEF 190749
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1249 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER MOSTLY DRY AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER TODAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL IMPACT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN INYO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
DUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND WIND IMPACTS WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH WIDESPREAD 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION
WILL START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH STRONG FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN
PLACE, MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO
RAIN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA
WHERE PWATS WILL PUSH 250-300% OF NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT DETAILS AS A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER- THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EVEN THE 25TH
TO 75TH QPF PERCENTILES REMAINS LARGE. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE AS WELL, THOUGH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 9000FT AND THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION.
THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES ON TO THE
EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES SO AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT. BY THIS WEEKEND, PWATS WILL BE MUCH
LOWER AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE- INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL ON COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT SHOULD WARM FROM THE TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE RAIN AND THE SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
WINDS
WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 8 KNOTS THROUGH MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY, WITH FEW TO SCT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND BASES AOA 10KFT AGL EXPECTED.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS FOLLOW TYPICAL
DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS THROUGH MONDAY. SPEEDS REMAIN UNDER 8
KNOTS IN MOST LOCATIONS. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN OWENS
VALLEY, INCLUDING KBIH, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREA-WIDE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 10KFT AGL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PLANZ
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