000
FXUS65 KVEF 191136
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
436 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER MOSTLY DRY AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER TODAY, A DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND
WIND IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH WIDESPREAD 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH STRONG
FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA WHERE PWATS WILL PUSH
250-300% OF NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT DETAILS AS A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER- THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EVEN THE 25TH TO 75TH QPF
PERCENTILES REMAINS LARGE. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AS
WELL, THOUGH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 9000FT AND THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SIERRA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION.
THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES ON TO
THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES
SO AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT. BY THIS WEEKEND, PWATS WILL
BE MUCH LOWER AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE-
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL ON COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT SHOULD WARM FROM
THE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE
LIGHT
WINDS UNDER 8KT AND FOLLOWING DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AROUND 10-12KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE...WINDS WILL FOLLOW
TYPICAL DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS AND REMAIN AROUND 8KT OR LESS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KBIH IN THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY UP-VALLEY WINDS
GUSTING TO 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...PHILLIPSON
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