099
FXUS65 KVEF 191735
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1035 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AFTER MOSTLY DRY AND LOW IMPACT WEATHER TODAY, A DEEPENING
TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION MIDWEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TODAY WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, IT WILL BE DRY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY STARTING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN INYO COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN DUE TO STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND
WIND IMPACTS WILL BE ISOLATED WITH WIDESPREAD 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES WEDNESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. WITH STRONG
FORCING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE TO ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND COULD LEAD TO RAIN IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST NEVADA AND WESTERN ARIZONA WHERE PWATS WILL PUSH
250-300% OF NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
IN EXACT DETAILS AS A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER- THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN EVEN THE 25TH TO 75TH QPF
PERCENTILES REMAINS LARGE. SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AS
WELL, THOUGH INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE 9000FT AND THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SIERRA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION.
THE TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES ON TO
THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END WEST TO EAST AS IT DOES
SO AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND IT. BY THIS WEEKEND, PWATS WILL
BE MUCH LOWER AND DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE-
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL ON COOL NORTHERLY FLOW, BUT SHOULD WARM FROM
THE TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PEAK OF THE RAIN AND THE
SYSTEM OVERHEAD.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE
FAIRLY QUIET AND BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS. LIGHT WINDS FAVORING AN E TO NE DIRECTION UNDER 8KT DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. AROUND 02-04Z, LIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO
A MORE WSW DIRECTION AND REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW PASSING CLOUDS AROUND
10-12KFT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 18Z FORECAST PACKAGE...VERY QUIET AND BENIGN
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS FOLLOW TYPICAL
DAILY DIRECTIONAL PATTERNS AND REMAIN AROUND 8KT OR LESS THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE KBIH, WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY UP-
VALLEY WINDS GUSTING TO 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY PERSIST A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET AT KBIH BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...NICKERSON
AVIATION...MOORE
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