967
FXUS65 KVEF 200443
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
943 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* AN INCOMING TROUGH BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
CHANCES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, CURRENTLY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF OREGON,
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANCES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
IT PLUNGES SOUTH AND EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO APPEAR
OVER HIGH TERRAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
AND DIFLUENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE ADVECTION BRINGS PWATS INTO THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH
RANGE, WHICH IS 200 TO 300 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.
ELEVATED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY DRIVEN BY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT AND COLD AIR UNDER THE LOW MAY PROMPT PARTICULARLY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-
1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 40+ KNOTS OF SHEAR STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
ABOVE 10,000 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL TO AROUND 8,500 FEET ON
THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH MOVES EAST BY FRIDAY, LINGERING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER HIGH
TERRAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SHOULD
INCREASE WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
ANOTHER NOTABLE IMPACT WILL BE INCREASED WINDS STARTING TUESDAY. 850
MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. FOR TUESDAY, THE
STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE IN THE OWENS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. PEAK GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE,
WITH A LOW PROBABILITY (10-20%) OF WIND GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD TO MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST. LINGERING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES REMAIN ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT.
A RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS. MOISTURE WILL SCOUR OUT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT WILL INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO COMPARED TO
TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK.
AVIATION...FOR HARRY REID...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
FOLLOWING TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS AND SPEEDS GENERALLY
REMAINING LESS THAN 8 KNOTS. NORTHEAST WINDS TUESDAY MORNING WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY 21Z. THERE IS A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEEING AN ISOLATED GUST TO 12 KNOTS ONCE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST, BUT
ANY GUSTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SURROUNDING THE VALLEY, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE
FIELD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SCT
CLOUDS AND BASES GENERALLY REMAINING AOA 10KFT AGL.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA, NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...FOR THE 06Z FORECAST PACKAGE...LIGHT WINDS FOLLOWING
TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MOST SITES WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OWENS VALLEY, INCLUDING KBIH, WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
30 TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE
DESERT, INCLUDING KDAG. ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL BE SEEN
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT NO
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT AREA TERMINALS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR IMPACTS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
DISCUSSION...MELTZER
AVIATION...PLANZ
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