512  
FXUS01 KWBC 141959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EST WED FEB 14 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU FEB 15 2018 - 00Z SAT FEB 17 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING FLOODING IN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY  
AND NORTHEAST...  
 
...WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BEFORE A  
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD...  
   
..BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE WEST
 
 
STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS  
WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK--WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED  
TO BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TODAY  
WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AND EAST--WITH PRECIPITATION INCREASING  
WITHIN THE MID-ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED  
ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE OFF. THESE STORMS WILL BE  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL--GIVING WAY TO A SLIGHT RISK  
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THIS REGION. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTHWARD ON EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, A LINE OF PRECIPITATION WILL  
FOLLOW. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED RAINFALL WILL SPAN FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC NEAR THE COLD FRONT.  
 
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE  
ALONG THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE UP TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASE  
IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER  
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL  
EVEN AS SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST INTO FRIDAY.  
HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT IS PRESENT IN THE  
SOUTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE RAINFALL AND  
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD ALLEVIATE THESE CONDITIONS.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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