901  
FXUS01 KWBC 262000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EST MON FEB 26 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE FEB 27 2018 - 00Z THU MAR 01 2018  
 
...COLD CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH SNOW  
LEVELS DROPPING MARKEDLY...  
 
...INCREASING WILDFIRE DANGER FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO THE  
MID-SOUTH...  
 
WITH UPPER RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN  
ATLANTIC RESPECTIVELY, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS  
THE NATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM OF INTEREST  
IS CURRENTLY DIVING DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH  
WILL DRAW ANOTHER SURGE OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE  
WESTERN U.S. EXPECTED HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS  
CALIFORNIA WILL RESIDE IN THE 50S WHICH IS AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES  
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. MANY OVERNIGHT READINGS COULD DROP TO NEAR  
FREEZING ACROSS THE GOLDEN STATE ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR CITY CENTERS  
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 40S. WITH THE COLD CONDITIONS MOVING  
THROUGH THE REGION, EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO DROP CONSIDERABLY,  
POSSIBLY BELOW 2,500 FEET. THIS WOULD BRING SOME ACCUMULATING  
SNOWS IN THE HIGH DESERTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE A FEW  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW CENTER  
ITSELF. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE WESTERN STATES SHOULD REMAIN ON  
THE CHILLY SIDE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND  
WASHINGTON CASCADES.  
 
AS THIS MENTIONED SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENSUE. A  
WELL DEFINED DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH RATHER WARM, BREEZY  
CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING  
WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY. WITH SUCH INGREDIENTS IN PLACE ON TOP OF AN  
AREA WHICH IS EXCEEDINGLY DRY AS SEEN ON THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR,  
EXPECT WILDFIRE PRODUCTION TO BE AN ISSUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
AN AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS CURRENTLY IN A CRITICAL OR  
ELEVATED RISK BASED ON THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER  
OUTLOOK.  
 
GIVEN THE ROBUST CLOSED LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN  
STATES, A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RETURN  
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE  
FOLLOWING THIS PATH NORTHWARD, ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY  
SPREAD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, OZARKS, AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS. THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD COMMENCE BY MID-WEEK AND CONTINUING  
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ALL OF WHICH WILL OCCUR OVER HIGHLY  
SATURATED SOILS FROM PRECEDING FLOODING EVENTS. AS SUCH,  
ADDITIONAL FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS IN  
THE UPCOMING DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST PLACES AN AREA OF 1 TO 2  
INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM TEXARKANA, TEXAS OUT TOWARD LITTLE ROCK,  
ARKANSAS WITH ACTIVITY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE  
AS WELL AS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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