223  
FXUS02 KWBC 281530  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1030 AM EST WED FEB 28 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 03 2018 - 12Z WED MAR 07 2018  
 
...SIGNIFICANT WESTERN STORM THIS WEEKEND WILL AFFECT THE NORTH  
CENTRAL STATES NEXT WEEK WITH WIND-DRIVEN SNOW...  
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
A ROBUST WESTERN SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK, SPREADING SNOW OUT  
OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. RAIN AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN  
COVERAGE OVER SE TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH/INTO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT NEXT MON-TUE UNTIL IT PUSHES INTO THE GULF. BY  
ABOUT NEXT WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER LOW ABOUT 750 MILES OFF THE COAST  
OF CALIFORNIA ON TUESDAY WILL CREEP FARTHER EAST, SPREADING SOME  
LIGHT RAIN TO AT LEAST COASTAL AREAS OF THE GOLDEN STATE. THE  
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, AND A  
GENERAL BLEND SERVED WELL AS A STARTING POINT.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
IN THE WEST, COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND MODEST  
TO LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT  
BASIN AND ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY IN  
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND SOME RECORD  
LOWS ARE POSSIBLE. CONVERSELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL  
WARM TO ABOUT 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES  
THROUGH THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND, MOVING EASTWARD IN TIME NEXT WEEK  
GENERALLY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.  
 
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HAZARDOUS WIND-DRIVEN SNOWSTORM IN THE  
COLDER AIR NORTH OF THE DEEPENING LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER  
MIDWEST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SEVERAL  
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO  
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS MORE  
THAN 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, TRIPLE POINT  
LOW MAY TRY TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHICH WOULD  
SUPPORT AT LEAST A LIGHT WINTRY THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.  
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL WPC WINTER WEATHER  
PROBABILITIES, ALSO AVAILABLE AT DIGITAL.WEATHER.GOV.  
 
FINALLY, THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA  
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL MOVE EASTWARD THOUGH HOW QUICKLY REMAINS A  
QUESTION. TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER, BUT THIS SHOULD STILL ALLOW  
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO FALL OVER AT LEAST COASTAL NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA AND SW OREGON BY NEXT WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL  
INTO SOCAL AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL.  
 
FRACASSO  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page