317  
FXUS01 KWBC 282045  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
342 PM EST WED FEB 28 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU MAR 1 2018 - 00Z SAT MAR 3 2018  
 
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH NOR'EASTER FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
AND HEAVY SNOW FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...  
 
HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.  
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM ARKANSAS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, WITH  
THE GREATEST TOTALS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND  
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS  
DEPICTED FOR THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE A PROBLEM GIVEN A COMBINATION OF BOTH HEAVY RAIN  
AND ANTECEDENT WET GROUND FROM PRIOR RAINFALL.  
 
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
EXTENDING THROUGH FRIDAY AS A MAJOR NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS SOUTH OF  
NEW ENGLAND. A COMPLICATED STORM EVOLUTION KNOWN AS MILLER-B  
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY TRANSFERS ITS ENERGY TO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW NEAR THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE THE  
MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS EVENT, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE  
COAST AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. HIGH WIND  
WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE NEW  
JERSEY COAST FOR EXPECTED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES.  
 
FOR THE WESTERN U.S., ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM  
SYSTEM COUPLED WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT  
IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW FROM THE SIERRAS TO  
THE CASCADES, WHERE LOCAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE  
POSSIBLE. WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS,  
WITH SNOW LEVELS BELOW 2000 FEET ELEVATION FROM NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA TO WASHINGTON STATE.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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