361  
FXUS02 KWBC 010523  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1222 AM EST THU MAR 01 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 04 2018 - 12Z THU MAR 08 2018  
 
...A ROBUST WEEKEND WRN US WINTER STORM AFFECTS THE N-CENTRAL US  
EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
 
...PATTERN OVERVIEW/THREATS AND GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY  
ASSESSMENT...  
 
A DYNAMIC WEEKEND WRN US SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
N-CENTRAL US EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SPREAD HAZARDOUS WIND-DRIVEN  
SNOWS OUT OF THE ROCKIES TO THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA AND GREAT LAKES.  
MEANWHILE UNDERNEATH...RETURN MOISTURE FLOW WILL FUEL MODERATE  
RAINS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO EXPAND FROM SE TEXAS THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST/TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. PROGRESSIVE ACTIVITY  
WILL WORK THROUGH/OFF THE ERN SEABOARD TUE/WED WITH COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WRN ATLANTIC. ENERGY TRANSFER  
OFF THE EAST COAST INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD SUPPORT COASTAL STORM  
GENESIS WITH WRAPBACK SNOWS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST TO THE  
NORTH OF THE LOW. WPC CONTINUITY AND OVERALL FORECAST  
PREDICTABILITY REMAINS BETTER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS SCENARIO.  
 
WELL UPSTREAM...AN ERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF  
CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO LIFT EASTWARD...THOUGH  
HOW QUICKLY REMAINS QUITE UNCLEAR. A GUIDANCE BLEND WOULD ALLOW  
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION WORK INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AROUND NEXT WED/THU AND WPC MEDIUM RANGE PROGS OFFER  
MODEST APPROACH AND EFFECT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.  
 
OVERALL...12 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES  
CLUSTER BEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREFER TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF  
A GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST APPROACH MID-LATER NEXT WEEK  
AMID GROWING RUN-RUN MODEL VARIANCE. THIS MAINTAINS GOOD WPC  
CONTINUITY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 

 
 
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