892  
FXUS01 KWBC 012029  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
329 PM EST THU MAR 01 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI MAR 02 2018 - 00Z SUN MAR 04 2018  
 
...STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO  
THE NORTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE HAZARDS...  
 
...COLD AND SNOWY FOR MUCH OF THE WEST WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS...  
 
...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...  
 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF A SURFACE LOW,  
CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH OHIO, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING IN WESTERN NEW YORK.  
FARTHER EAST, A STRONG COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY  
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT BEFORE  
THE LOW DEPARTS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN  
NEW YORK AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING BUT AS THE LOW  
STRENGTHENS, COLDER AIR WILL ALLOW A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM WEST  
TO EAST FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE A HEAVY  
AND WET CONSISTENCY GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE  
FREEZING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH  
POSSIBLE. FROM LONG ISLAND TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW  
ENGLAND, WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY  
NIGHT, JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING,  
BOTH COASTAL AND INLAND FLOODING, ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN  
PENNSYLVANIA TO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ALONG WITH  
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE. BY THE TIME THE STORM SYSTEM  
DEPARTS FRIDAY NIGHT, SNOWFALL OF ONE TO TWO FEET IS EXPECTED  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE CATSKILLS WITH SIX TO  
TWELVE INCHES POSSIBLE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW ENGLAND.  
 
OUT WEST, A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT  
MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. A  
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ALONG  
THE WEST COAST WITH COASTAL RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. HOWEVER, THIS  
STORM SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES  
(HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY), WHICH WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO  
FALL TO NEAR 1500 FEET FROM SOUTHWESTERN OREGON INTO NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. IN ADVANCE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COAST OF  
CALIFORNIA WHICH MAY POSE FLOODING CONCERNS THIS EVENING AND  
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR REGIONS WHERE FLASH FLOODING  
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
FARTHER INLAND, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA WITH  
SNOWFALL TO LIKELY BE MEASURED IN FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. FOR  
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7009 FEET, UP TO FOUR FEET OF NEW SNOW IS  
EXPECTED WITH ONE TO THREE FEET AT MIDDLE ELEVATIONS. COLD AND  
SNOW WILL AFFECT INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF THE WEST AS WELL, WITH  
CENTRAL NEVADA, IDAHO AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
ROCKIES LIKELY SEEING UP TO A FOOT OR SO OF NEW SNOW THROUGH  
SATURDAY. WHILE NOT EVERYBODY WILL SEE HEAVY SNOW, GIVEN THE  
ANOMALOUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT  
FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ON FRIDAY  
AND SATURDAY.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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