739  
FXUS01 KWBC 051955  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
254 PM EST MON MAR 05 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE MAR 06 2018 - 00Z THU MAR 08 2018  
 
...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED LOCALLY...  
 
...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE  
GULF COAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK  
IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...  
 
...ANOTHER NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY, SPREADING SNOW TO THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...  
 
AN OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER  
STORY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY  
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTH AND WEST OF  
THIS LOW, HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HEAVY  
SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS, WHERE BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF  
COAST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS  
MOIST AIR COMES IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAIN IS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN GULF COAST. SHOWERS  
WILL SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.  
 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, DRY AIR WILL COME IN AND STRONG WINDS ARE  
LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CRITICAL FIRE DANGER FOR  
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH MUCH OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS  
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN ELEVATED TO  
CRITICAL RISK WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT, AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS  
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, NEBRASKA, AND KANSAS, AS WELL AS EASTERN  
WYOMING AND COLORADO. SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO  
HAVE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY, AS THE WESTERN U.S. IS  
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE DRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE A  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY EVENING AND  
BEGIN STRENGTHENING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS  
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD (AS A  
NOR'EASTER) JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY.  
SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE  
NORTHEAST, WITH TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN  
PENNSYLVANIA, EASTERN NEW YORK, AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WEST OF THE MAJOR CITIES. LIGHTER SNOWFALL IS  
FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND BACK INTO THE NORTHERN  
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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