567  
FXUS06 KWBC 052009  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD  
300 PM EST MON MARCH 05 2018  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2018  
 
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED LARGE  
SCALE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. A HIGH AMPLITUDE  
TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM, A STRONG RIDGE IS  
PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE, THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL  
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE PACIFIC COAST. A RIDGE FORECAST OVER  
CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO ENHANCED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS, PART OF THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION. ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND NORTHERLY FLOW  
TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE LOWER  
MISSISSPPI VALLEY, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST.  
 
MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADS TO ENHANCED  
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEST CONUS, AND THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE. AS A TROUGH PROGRESSES TO THE EASTERN CONUS, ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION. RIDGING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENHANCED EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW LEADS TO  
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY LEADS TO INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED  
ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF  
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z  
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO  
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE 500-HPA PATTERNS.  
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2018  
 
THE MEAN 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FEATURES A LESS  
AMPLIFIED CIRCULATION AND THE OVERALL LONG WAVE PATTERN IS SHIFTED EASTWARD.  
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA  
PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN CONUS, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THE ALEUTIANS.  
 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA, AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND  
EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, RIDGING LEADS  
TO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.  
 
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN  
CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH ON SHARE FLOW AND TROUGHING. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA DUE TO LOW LEVEL  
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
ARE ELEVATED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER  
THE ATLANTIC OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE CONUS.  
 
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS  
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN  
CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY  
11, 20% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, AND 20%  
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR  
AGREEMENT AMONG THE SURFACE TOOLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.  
 
FORECASTER: QIN Z  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN  
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS  
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,  
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE  
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,  
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES  
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE  
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A  
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL  
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES  
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO  
PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE  
OUTLOOKS.  
 
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  
MARCH 15.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19580307 - 19520216 - 20090213 - 20090304 - 19510309  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19580307 - 20060307 - 20090214 - 19510222 - 19510309  
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 11 - 15 2018  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A  
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING A B  
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A  
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA N B  
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B B  
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS A B  
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B  
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B  
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B  
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B N  
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B B  
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE A N  
MASS N B CONN B N RHODE IS N N  
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A  
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A  
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A  
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N  
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B B  
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N A  
 
 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 13 - 19 2018  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A  
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A  
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B N WYOMING N N  
UTAH N A ARIZONA N B COLORADO A N  
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N  
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N  
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B  
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N  
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN A B  
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A B  
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY B B  
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N B  
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B  
MASS N B CONN B B RHODE IS N B  
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B  
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B  
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B  
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE B N  
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N  
AK S INT B B AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS  
PMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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