767  
FXUS01 KWBC 120725  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
325 AM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 12 2018 - 12Z MON MAY 14 2018  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES...  
 
...RAIN AND LATE SEASON MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COVER A LARGE AREA INCLUDING  
MUCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDWEST AND AREAS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES, MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND  
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED  
THIS REGION AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH AN  
AREA OF ENHANCED RISK OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MARYLAND, SOUTHERN  
PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND NORTHERN DELAWARE. HEAVY  
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF THESE STORMS.  
 
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER STATES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE STRADDLES THIS REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.  
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SOUTH, THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR  
ABOVE NORMAL. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FLORIDA WHERE AN AREA OF  
DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SHOULD BRING PLENTY  
OF CLOUDS AND A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINS SHOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WHERE LOCALLY 2 TO  
3 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL  
CERTAINLY KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOLER AS WELL.  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE REMAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS  
AS LOCALLY HOT, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PERSIST. MANY OF THESE  
AREAS ARE IN AN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, AND UNFORTUNATELY  
MOST OF THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY RAIN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
RAIN AND LATE SEASON MOUNTAIN SNOW THOUGH IS EXPECTED FARTHER  
NORTH ACROSS THE WEST WITH A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING  
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND  
SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,  
WHERE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN WILL ENHANCE  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS.  
 
CAMPBELL/ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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