142  
FXUS01 KWBC 121959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 13 2018 - 00Z TUE MAY 15 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THE OHIO VALLEY TO  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT...  
 
...WARM FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE  
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD, EXCEPT A RAINY FLORIDA...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES...  
 
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT,  
AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT PROVIDES A PLACE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM  
IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS COULD LEAD  
TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO  
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH  
WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD, WHICH COULD LEAD  
TO WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL  
BE FLORIDA, WHERE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO  
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE STATE. THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA IS  
EXPECTING 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,  
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE PENINSULA.  
 
FARTHER WEST, A DRYLINE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEST OF THIS DRYLINE, LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY  
WINDS, AND THE ONGOING DROUGHT WILL ALL COMBINE TO CREATE  
FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AGAIN ON  
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE DRYLINE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WELCOMED  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH PARTS OF TEXAS, PARTICULARLY  
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  
 
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO ROCKIES WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN  
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A FRONT LINGERS IN  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NEAR THE UTAH/ARIZONA BORDER. HEAVY SNOW  
IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL  
GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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