804  
FXUS01 KWBC 130756  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
355 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 13 2018 - 12Z TUE MAY 15 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDWEST  
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...  
 
...WARM FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE  
MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWARD, EXCEPT A RAINY FLORIDA...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES...  
 
A MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN STATES WILL REMAIN WARM, CALM AND DRY  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH LOW HUMIDITY, GUSTY WINDS, AND THE  
ONGOING DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION, PERSISTENT FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES;  
WHICH NECESSITATES THE NEED FOR RED FLAG WARNINGS. THE DRYLINE  
OVER WESTERN TEXAS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WELCOMED SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS. GULF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD  
CONVECTION. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME  
LOCATIONS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN  
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN TEXAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN IOWA  
TO NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND FROM OKLAHOMA TO  
WESTERN ILLINOIS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL  
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS WITHIN THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF NEW SNOW BY TUESDAY  
MORNING. TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN  
SEASONAL AVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,  
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  
 
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH WIDESPREAD 90+ DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURES  
FOR THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND MID-ATLANTIC  
SOUTHWARD. THESE READINGS MAY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGHS ON  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FLORIDA, WHERE A  
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS  
THE STATE. THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTING 2 TO 3  
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, KEEPING HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE PENINSULA.  
 
CAMPBELL/TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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