311  
FXUS01 KWBC 140757  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
357 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON MAY 14 2018 - 12Z WED MAY 16 2018  
 
...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST AND EAST OVER PARTS OF THE MID-OHIO VALLEY  
AND MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA  
PENINSULA...  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG  
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK.  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A VAST AREA SPANNING  
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, ALONG THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AS HAVING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FOR  
ADDITIONAL DETAILS, PLEASE REFER TO THE SPC WEBSITE. ABUNDANT  
MOISTURE WILL FEED NORTHWARD OVER THIS BOUNDARY, AND GIVEN THE  
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK OVER THE SAME  
AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL,  
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND  
OHIO VALLEY TODAY. THE AREA OF RISK WILL SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.  
 
IN ADDITION, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED DRYLINE THROUGH TUESDAY,  
TOO. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN  
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE LOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION, GREAT BASIN, AND THE SIERRAS LIKEWISE THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO HANG OUT OVER THE EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO, WHICH WILL DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS AN INTO  
OVER FLORIDA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE  
OVER FLORIDA AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND  
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.  
 
CAMPBELL/ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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