997  
FXUS01 KWBC 150744  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
344 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 15 2018 - 12Z THU MAY 17 2018  
 
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY ...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY FROM NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHERN  
NEW JERSEY, SHIFTING TO THE DEL-MAR-VA ON WEDNESDAY AND ALONG THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER ON  
THURSDAY...  
 
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE ALONG  
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO VALLEY TO THE  
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY. THE EASTERN PORTION OF A  
REINFORCING FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN TIP OF MAINE ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ADVANCE  
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES, MERGING WITH THE  
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THIS SECTOR  
OF THE U.S. WILL HAVE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR BECOMING SEVERE-  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF  
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT  
RISK, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK COVERING NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO  
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS/CONNECTICUT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY AS STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREA. WPC HAS ISSUED  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY,  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STRADDLE THE U.  
S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUT WEST, A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL  
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY; WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER  
INLAND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH  
MIDWEEK.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL  
AID IN STEERING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY  
WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL EXPAND INTO THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THURSDAY. WPC HAS ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR AREAS  
ALONG THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR THURSDAY.  
 
CAMPBELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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